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  • Melinda Mills

Twin epidemics: Effects of HIV & systolic blood pressure on mortality risk in rural South Africa


Predicted probability of mortality by sex, HIV status and systolic blood pressure, Agincourt, South Africa, 2010-2018


LCDS Postdoc Andrea Tilstra recently published the paper, “Twin epidemics: the effects of HIV and systolic blood pressure on mortality risk in rural South Africa, 2010-2019,” in BMC Public Health. The paper is part of a research team led by Brian Houle of Australian National University and other members of the HIV After 40 team, led by Sanyu Mojola of Princeton University.


In the article, the team examines the associations and interactions between HIV and hypertension status and differential mortality risk in rural northeastern South Africa. Using sex-stratified discrete time history models, the study finds that HIV and elevated blood pressure are acting as separate, non-interacting epidemics affecting high proportions of the older adult population.

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